RE/MAX Hallmark Realty Ltd., Brokerage | Direct: 416.508.9513 | Office 416.699.9292

NEWS

April 2018 Market Review

TREB reported 7,792 sales last month, a drop in volume of 32.1% from April 2017. The average sale price was down 12.4%, but keep in mind that at this time last year the market was still showing the effects of that massive price spike. April 2017 had shot up 33.2% over April 2016, which was wild and unsustainable. This year, the April average price was $804,584. To help us keep some perspective on things, I’ve been looking back at 2016, and seeing how this year compares. The average sale price in April 2016 was $688,011, so we’re up 16.9% since then. Even averaging over two years, that gives us almost 8.5% annual increases over that time, which is pretty darned good.

Another point to keep in mind that the mix of types of real estate sold influences the average price. TREB points out that sales over $2 million accounted for about 10% of sales in April 2017, but just 5.5% in April 2018. Obviously, more high-end sales in 2017 helped skew up the average sale price, and that’s not happening so far this year. That’s why TREB’s MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark (which weights sales across the board) was down by just 5.2%.

Condo sales volume also declined last month, down 26.4% from the same time last year. Once again, though, condo prices in the 416 increased, this time by a rather moderate – and sustainable – 3.8%.

Back to the average price: I usually don’t bother tracking month-to-month price changes, because seasonal influences – even something like a big storm, or a long weekend – can have short-term impacts. However, because we are trying to see through/around the big price spike in early 2017, it’s worth noting that the April 2018 average price was up 2.5% over March. Looking at 2018 to this point, the average price is up 9.5% since December. That’s actually fairly significant, and a sign that the Toronto real estate market is in good shape.

There were 16,273 new listings posted last month, and at the end of the month there were 18,206 available. That’s up 40.8% over last year, and it means that there’s more selection for buyers. Still, it’s not as many as April 2013, when there were 20,866 listings – and in April 2008 there were 24,530! Ah, the good ol’ days…. 😉

Over-all, the spring market seems to be under way. It’s a great time to both buy (because there’s some options out there now) and sell (because there are lots of buyers), so if you are in the market, feel free to call me!

March 2018 Market Review

Well, the TREB stats are out for March, and so are the breathless headlines! I was going to comment on a few of them, but the thought gave me a headache. 😉

While sales volume fell significantly year-over-year (down about 40%), one has to remember that at this time last year the market was still in the throes of utter madness. Very low supply had fuelled aggressive bidding by buyers, which caused a feeding frenzy of sorts, and that rapid price spike that I have referenced before. Compared to that period, the current market is a picture of serenity! Prices pulled back last year in/around April-May-June. Basically, comparing March of 2018 to March of 2017 is a bit pointless, because last year was an anomaly. I think that we’ll get a better sense of the true state of things when we see the April and May reports.

Nonetheless, the fact is that the average sale price was lower in March than it was last March, about -14.3%. Sales volume was down across all housing types, but the average price for a condo in the 416 was actually up 7.1%, again indicating that buyers have adjusted to high house prices by looking at the condo option. The average price for a detached house is now about $1,293,903, down from $1,561,780 at the same time last year. Keep in mind, though, that the price spike last year was +32.8% over March, 2016! That was obviously unsustainable, and it’s a good thing for the over-all market that those conditions only lasted a few months. The average sale price for a detached home in 2016 was $1,174,358; this year’s average is up about 10.2% since then, which I think is quite reasonable.

Keeping with the theme of looking back at 2016 for some perspective, overall, the average sale price in March 2018 is up 14% over March 2016, which tells me that we are in good shape.

The number of new listings dropped from 16,978 to 14,866, a decline of 12.4%. That might be because sellers were afraid of diminished returns, or it could just be a coincidence.  Even so, the number of active listings basically doubled, from 7,865 to 15,971. Again, that’s a good thing. There were 12,132 listings in March of 2016, which was down from 15,295 in 2015, so we are basically back to 2015 levels. Enough supply means that buyers have a better chance to buy what they want/need in the area where they want to be, and that’s a sign of a healthy real estate market.

Now that March Break and Easter are behind us, and the market has had time to absorb the new federal mortgage ‘stress test’ rules and the provincial housing regulations, I’m hoping that we get going with the spring market! If you plan to buy or sell any time soon, feel free to get in touch.

February 2018 Market Review

Once again, there’s a lot of noise and nonsense about the Toronto real estate market. Headlines with words like “plummet” and “slump” make it seem as though the market is in bad shape. It’s not.

Firstly, we typically compare a month (e.g. February) to the same month a year earlier. That’s usually a good measure that captures relative seasonal ups and downs – an apples-to-apples comparison – and it’s a long enough time frame to give us a view of the direction of things. However, when something unusual happens, like the massive price spike we saw in the first quarter of 2017, that measure gets skewed. Last February saw prices jump up 27.7% over February 2016. That was crazy, and it was a good thing that the market came back down in the following months. As I have written previously, 2017 was quite a roller coaster, so as we go through 2018 and do our usual one-year-ago comparison, we have to keep that in mind.

So, saying that the market is in negative territory is wrong. We have to take a broader look – or, put another way, look back a little further, and see how current prices look longer-term. TREB did that in their monthly report. Compared to February 2016, when the average sale price was $685,278, we are up 12%. Not too shabby.

Now, let’s look back over the last few months. The average sale price back in November was $761,757; in December it was $735,021; in January, 2018 it was $736,783; February was $767,818. I think the numbers over the last few months reflect the typical seasonal dip that happens every year. Situation: normal.

Secondly, we also have to look at the segments. It’s certainly very interesting that sales of fully and semi-detached houses were down, as were their average sale prices. The number of sales of townhouses and condos were also down, but prices in those segments were up. As mentioned, the average price in February worked out to $767,818, compared to $876,363 last February – a drop of 12.4%. But, the average townhouse price was up 15.5% and condos were up 10.7%. It seems to me like buyers have shifted away from the highest priced housing types and ‘substituted’ for smaller, cheaper options.

Also of note, the number of new listings edged up slightly, but the overall number of listings increased significantly (147.4%). This serves as a reminder of how tight the market supply was at this time last year. Let’s look at available listings in February over the last several years:

2013 – 15,969

2014 – 14,019

2015 – 12,793

2016 – 10,902

2017 – 5,400

2018 – 13,362

This is why I’m always stressing that supply is a big problem: it declined steadily for five years, then dropped like a stone last  year, and that naturally caused a price spike. Getting the supply back up is key to a healthy market, and we are getting there.

The ‘spring market’ is warming up, too, although this week is March Break, which is usually a bit slower due to travel, etc. I check listings and sales every day, and it looks to me like sales are happening quicker than last month, and usually for over asking. That tells me that there are lots of buyers out there. They now have some more selection, and that is a good thing. Pretty soon the market will have adapted to the latest new mortgage rules, the weather will warm up, and we’ll be able to put ‘bad news’ behind us for a while. 🙂

 

SIMON MILBERRY

About

Buying and selling a home can be tough, especially in today’s challenging market.  But, it can also be fun – an exhilarating adventure. I understand both the joys and heartaches of finding (and getting) that perfect home. As a homeowner with a young family, I’ve been there and done that. I also have the professional know-how that years of working in the Toronto real estate market has developed.

Over the years (since 2001), I have represented clients in the purchase and sale of condos, starter homes, move-up houses, luxury homes and small businesses. (Although Commercial real estate is not my core business, I am usually working with one or two Commercial clients.) My knowledge and experience make the difference for my clients.

My clients are my focus, but a Realtor can’t get much done if he doesn’t develop strong professional and personal relationships within the industry. In today’s market, characterized as it is by very tight supply, I find that one of the most important aspects of my business is networking with other Realtors. I am constantly digging for opportunities for my clients. This results in off-MLS transactions that serve the needs of both the buyer and seller.

As a father of 3 boys and 1 little girl, I take a family-friendly approach to my business dealings. That means flexible appointments and easy scheduling; feel free to bring the kids! I endeavor to make the whole process as smooth and stress-free as possible.

Ultimately, the objective is to enhance your life by finding you a new home that suits your needs of today and into the future; and selling your existing asset for the most money and with the best terms possible. Together, we’ll develop and execute the right strategy for you and your specific needs.

Much of my business comes to me by referral, so I’m not limited to any geographical area.  My focus is on meeting the needs of my clients, wherever they may be. Call me today, and let’s get to work on your real estate goals.

Community

RE/MAX Hallmark is a big believer in giving back to the communities we serve, and I am happy to participate in three of our most important programs.

Every time I do a transaction – buy, sell or lease – I make a direct donation to theChildren’s Miracle Network. RE/MAX agents are leading donors to the CMN, having raised $52 million dollars in Canada alone since 1992. When you do your real estate business with me, we contribute to that growing total.

We do the same for the Canadian Breast Cancer Foundation. Again, RE/MAX is a major sponsor of the CBCF, and makes it easy for us to contribute directly to the important work they do. A portion of every commission I make goes directly to the CBCF.

I also make a monthly donation to the breakfast program operated by the Toronto Foundation for Student Success. We all know how important a good brekky is – and how many kids wouldn’t get one if it weren’t for programs like the TFSS. With four kids of my own, this one is close to my heart.

You need an experienced, full-time professional Realtor – that’s key to a successful real estate transaction. However, I want you to know that, not only am I going to take care ofyou, but together we’ll help take care of others!

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Simon Milberry, Sales Representative at RE/MAX Hallmark Realty Ltd., Brokerage

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2237 QUEEN STREET EAST
TORONTO, Ontario M4E1G1

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Business: 416.699.9292
Fax: 416.699.8576
Mobile: 416.508.9513

 

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