June 2018 Market Review

For most of 2018 so far, it has appeared that the Toronto real estate market has been ‘down’. All along, I’ve been saying that it only looks that way because of the crazy price spike that occurred in the first few months of 2017, and that once this year’s data started to compare to what happened after the spike was over, we would get a better sense of what’s actually happening. (I have also done some longer-term comparisons, and looked at the month-to-month data over the last half-year or so.) Well, it appears that we are getting there!

The June 2018 stats are out, and the average price has finally shown a year-over-year increase. At $807,871, it’s only about a 2% increase over last June’s $791,929, but it’s notable for actually being an increase. The sales volume was also up to 8,082, about 2.4% above the 7,893 reported last June. In fact, the only metric that was down last month was new listings; there were only 15,922 last month, down 18.6% from last June’s 19,561. By the end of the month there were 20,844 active listings on the TorontoMLS, up 5.9% from 19,680 last year. That’s a decent number that should offer reasonable selection for buyers.

Something else that caught my eye is that the average sale price for the last few months has been quite stable. In March it was $784,558, then in April it jumped to $804,584, and was $805,320 in May. The June number is almost the same (see above), making for three months of flat pricing. Naturally, it could have something to do with the product mix, and declining new listings could also play a factor. Still, it’s a bit unusual: imagine that – a stable real estate market in Toronto!

Condos showed a 6% decline in sales volume, but a 9.5% jump in average price. With more luxury condos being built in Toronto, it could just be that the size and value of the typical condo hitting the market is greater, but it could also reflect continuing tightening in that segment. Either way, I think we can safely say that the Toronto condo market is not ‘over built’ or in any kind of trouble.

The summer months are typically a bit slower than spring and fall, so we naturally see a slight dip in sales and prices in July and August – and recent heat wave will probably contribute to that. But, overall I believe that we are past the messiest numbers, and the data over the next few months will show strong increases over last year. Watch for it – and remember that you read it here first! 😉