September, 2021 Market Review

As usual, the Toronto real estate market picked up after Labour Day. As TRREB put it in their monthly summary, “Sales increased relative to August and were also at
the third-highest mark on record for the month of September. The average selling price was up both month-over-month and year-over-year.” (I couldn’t have said it better myself. 😉 )

That said, the number of new listings didn’t impress. Only 13,483 new listings hit the market, down 34% from the 20,441 new listings that came out in September of 2020. Even worse, the number of total, active listings plummeted 49.4%, from 18,167 last September to just 9,191 last month. Seemingly as a result of the lack of inventory, there were 9,046 sales reported the the Toronto MLS, down 18% from September of 2020 (11,033 sales), and the resulting pressure on buyers (of whom there are still plenty) caused the average sale price to increase 18.3%, hitting $1,136,280 (averaged over all types of housing).

TRREB made a good point in their report: “The lack of housing supply and choice has reached a critical juncture. Bandaid policies to artificially suppress demand have not been effective. This is not an issue that can be solved by one level of government alone. There needs to be collaboration federally, provincially, and locally on a solution”.

Basically, what we’ve seen is that efforts by government to suppress demand, e.g. with mortgage “stress tests”, haven’t really worked. There still aren’t enough properties available to satisfy demand from people who need a place to live. Now, having bought new construction twice in the past, I know that there are challenges and stresses to getting things done, and the industry sometimes shoots itself in the foot (e.g. quality issues, periodic scandals, etc.), but it seems pretty obvious that we need more homes built in the 416 – and there’s plenty of room. Just drive around Scarborough to see for yourself! (And, with two major transit projects underway, that part of town is ‘getting closer’ to downtown.) The challenge is in getting it done, and I hope that TRREB continues to lobby for better co-operation and co-ordination amongst government and industry….

As for the rest of the ‘fall market’, things continue to chug along, and should do right through November. Buyers will keep running into competition across the city, for houses and condos. Plus ca change, plus ca meme chose! 😉 Rate increases, however, are on the horizon. If you need a pre-approval or plan to re-finance in the near future, I suggest that you get on that ASAP. Let me know if you need help with that!

simonmilberry
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