Chat with us, powered by LiveChat

Posts tagged " Toronto Real Estate Market "

April 2019 Market Review

May 6th, 2019 Posted by Affordability, Market Review No Comment yet

If you are active in the market at all these days (buyer or seller) you’ve probably noticed that things have picked up recently. Sometimes, we can feel it before the stats start to show it, and that’s basically been the case over the last couple of months, and now reflected in TREB’s April stats. Sales activity perked up significantly last month, with 9,042 transactions reported, up 16.8% over the 7,744 sales we saw in April of 2018. New listings also edged upwards, hitting 17,205 for the month, 8% more than we saw last April. Still, by the end of the month there were just 18,037 (including listings already on the market at the start of the month), actually down a touch from 18,206 last year. That means that, while new listings increased, the even greater increase in the pace of sales chewed into the inventory, and that usually foretells increasing prices….

Fortunately, prices are up only 1.9% over April 2018, with the average hitting $820,148 – still well below the peak prices we saw two years ago. Keep that in mind the next time you hear somebody complaining about ‘affordability’. Prices in Toronto are not skyrocketing; they are (for now, and for most of the last two years) trending upwards, which is a good thing. That said, if we continue to see tight supply, we’ll see escalating increases through the busy spring months.

The condo market had another strong month. Sales activity in that segment accounted for much of the action in the 416, increasing 2.6%; the average sale price surged 5.8%, to $637,181.

On a different – but related – note, I came across the Ontario government’s housing plan today. It’s basically about increasing supply – which stands in contrast to many of the demand-side moves that various governments have made to ‘cool the housing market’, for example tighter mortgage rules, the stress test, etc., all of which have made it harder to buy. I’ve long believed that dealing with supply is the solution, and although it will take a few years to work through the system, this plan could help….

RE/MAX Hallmark keeps expanding!

March 8th, 2019 Posted by In the media No Comment yet

Check out this big news that came out yesterday! RE/MAX Hallmark just keeps growing and growing!

— News Release —

Breaking News from Barrie and Simcoe County!

Today is an exciting day for RE/MAX Hallmark in Barrie and Simcoe region.

We are thrilled to announce effective immediately RE/MAX Hallmark Realty has partnered with the Number One real estate company in Barrie and Simcoe region – RE/MAX Chay to form RE/MAX Hallmark Chay Realty.

RE/MAX Chay has over 210 realtors and 7 real estate offices in Barrie, Angus, Innisfil, Alliston, Tottenham and Bradford. Under the leadership of Mark, Corrie and Christie – Chay has consistently provided an exceptional growing environment for its many realtors and outstanding client service.

This partnership is important for Hallmark realtors and their clients – now we will have a direct connection to an outstanding growing market!

Hallmark clients are now represented directly in the Barrie region, Aurora, Durham, Ottawa, Boston and Toronto.

Please join me in welcoming the outstanding realtors at RE/MAX Hallmark Chay to our Hallmark family.

Continued success,
Ken McLachlan
CEO, RE/MAX Hallmark Group of Companies

January 2019 Market Review

February 11th, 2019 Posted by Blog, Market Review No Comment yet

As expected, January was a slow month in the Toronto real estate market. Just 4,009 sales were reported, up a wee bit from 3,987 last January. (For reference, there were 5,188 in January 2017; 4,640 in January 2016; and 4,318 in January 2015, so the last couple of Januarys have been on the slower side.) The average sale price was $748,328, up just 1.7% from $735,874 this time last year. Basically, the market has been flat since then.

New listings increased 10.5%, to 9,456, and total active listings edged up 0.6% to 11,962. Remember, back in early 2017 when we saw the beginnings of that crazy price spike, there were just 5,034 active listings at the end of that January – down from 9,966 in 2016. That really highlights how super-tight the supply was in early 2017 – and it shows how important supply is and what it can do to the market.

The townhouse segment was the only one to see an increase in the number of sales year-over-year (+4.4% in the 416), and it also had the highest average price increase (+12.3%). At the other end of things, fully detached houses saw the biggest drop is number of sales (-8.6%) and the only decline in average sale price (-8.8%). Taking into account the various types and weighting the averages, the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price was up by 2.7% – still basically in line with inflation.

We are still in a time of year when the market is less busy – and the weather can have a real impact. (Think of the last few weeks: cold, snowy, warmer and now cold and snowy again!) Even one or two bad days can slow down sales and make it look like market activity has dipped. February will probably be similar to January. However, for my part, talking to my buyer clients and to other agents, it seems like there’s a lot of demand out there, and lots of folks impatiently waiting for the spring market to get going so that they can buy something. Some of the sale prices I’ve seen reported in the MLS (well over asking) seem to support that. We’ll have to wait and see what happens over the next few weeks and months, but I think we’re in for a busier year and higher prices in the Toronto market.

 

 

November 2018 Market Review

December 11th, 2018 Posted by Market Review No Comment yet

The Toronto real estate market had a slow-ish November, with sales volume dropping 14.7%, from 7,326 in November 2017 to 6,251 last month. At the same time, the number of new listings dropped 26.1%, from 14,260 to just 10,534, and the total number of listings dropped 9.8%, from 18,197 to 16,420. This dynamic (fewer sales, but with fewer homes available to buyers) resulted in a slight increase in the average sale price. The November 2017 average was $761,410, and that edged up 3.5% to $788,345 – a little above the Consumer Price Index (AKA ‘inflation’), which was 2.4% in October, 2018 (the most recent available number).

Sales volume for all types was down, but average price was up for all types except townhomes. The average sale price for semi-detached houses increased the most (17.2%), which could be an indicator that buyers continue to adjust to the high price of detached homes by choosing less expensive semis (which would increase demand in that segment and drive up prices). Condos had the second-highest increase (7%), which I think bolsters that argument, and suggests that the market can adjust to price spikes all by itself – no government intervention required! 😉

Regarding the number of available listing, it was down about 2500 from the previous month, which is typical for the last few months of any given year – things sort of peter out as we head into the Christmas/New Year season. Following that, the chill of winter can keep a lid on things for another month or two – it’s amazing how much bad weather can impact the Toronto market – but keep in mind that, although the market slows down, it never stops. If you really want to, you can certainly put out a listing now; and if you find something to buy, you have the choice of listing your current home immediately, or waiting ’til the New Year.

Check out TREB’s handy chart: MarketWatch_infographic_November

October 2018 Market Review

November 5th, 2018 Posted by Market Review No Comment yet

October was another solid month in the Toronto real estate market. TREB reported 7,492 sales, up 6% from October 2017. The average sale price (across all home types) edged up 3%, to $807,340. As I mentioned last month, prices have been relatively stable over the last six months or so, making now a good time to buy.

That said, it’s clearly not a ‘buyers market’. The number of listings just hasn’t increased enough to put us into that territory. New listings actually declined 2.7% to 14,431, while total available listings at the end of the month was up just barely (0.4%), to 18,926. Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis, put it this way in the monthly Market Watch report (my source for all these numbers I quote in my monthly Market Review): “Annual sales growth has outstripped annual growth in new listings for the last five months, underpinning the fact that listings supply remains an issue in the Greater Toronto Area.” So, regardless of other, outside, influences like the OFSI stress test or rising mortgage rates, the Toronto real estate market has it’s own internal supply and demand pressures that keep driving prices up, a point I have stressed many times.

The 416 condo market (i.e. not including the 905 region) saw a slight increase in sales volume of 2.8% and a price jump of 8.6%. I’ve said it many times – condos are a great option!

The ‘fall market’ usually continues through November, so we’ve got plenty of time left in 2018. Of note, I was out showing houses on the weekend and bumped into four other Realtors at one house – a sign that there’s lots of action out there! Exciting times…. 😉

 

September 2018 Market Review

October 12th, 2018 Posted by Blog, Market Review No Comment yet

September was a decent month for real estate in Toronto. TREB reported 6,455 sales, up 1.9% over September 2017. I’d call that basically flat (i.e. stable). The average sale price hit $796,786, which was up 2.9% year-over-year. That basically the same as the inflation rate (the August rate was 2.8%). Note that the average price is basically the same now as it was in the spring: in April it was $804,584, and in May it was $805,320. Put another way, affordability – much talked about these days in the media and among politicians – is not running away from buyers this year.

The number of new listings dipped 3.1% to 15,920, and by the end of the month there was a total of 20,089 listings (of all types) available, up 5.6% over September 2017. We haven’t seen this many listings in the month of September in the GTA since 2013, when we had 20,194. After that year, September supply declined to a low point of just 11,255 listings in September 2016. Low inventory meant rising prices – the average sale price that month was up 20.4% year-over-year. The current level of supply is better suited to a balanced market.

Condo sales volume in the 416 area dipped 5.5%, but the average sale price jumped 11.7%. As I keep saying, condos are a good investment, either for living in or holding/renting out….

Sales volume and average price increased for townhouses and semis, too – but detached houses actually took a bit of a hit, going down 1.4%. Such a small change could be a reflection of the variety of houses sold; take out a few multi-million dollar sales and the average could come down slightly. We’ll see if anything significant happens over the next couple of months.

For now, it looks like a good time to be a buyer: there’s a decent supply of options and prices are stable. That’s not to say that it’s a bad time to be a seller. (It’s not as good as spring ’17 – but so be it.) A balanced market is good for sellers, too, as they can rely on a steady stream of optimistic buyers for their property. One of them will be the right fit. And, since most sellers are also buyers, a balanced market allows those folks to make the move they want/need to make, too.

The fall is usually a great time to ‘do’ real estate. If you’ve been thinking about it, get in touch with me and let’s get it done!

 

Summer 2018 Market Review

September 6th, 2018 Posted by Market Review No Comment yet

The summer months are usually relatively quiet in the Toronto real estate market. There are some obvious reasons for that – people change gears and shift their attention to fun activities, and lots of folks take every opportunity to get out of the city. That said, there are still plenty of sales happening, but at a less hectic pace. The other thing to keep in mind when looking at Summer 2018 is that, by this time last year, the big spike/correction excitement had settled down. As I mentioned in a previous post, we’ll get a better measure of what the market has been doing this year once we start comparing to the post-spike/correction months last year.

Let’s look at July, first: sales volume was up 18.6%, to 6,961 units. That’s probably a reflection of the state of things last July – which was basically shock about what had just happened: there were just 5,869 sales that month. For reference, July 2016 had 9,989 sales; July 2015 had 9,880 sales; and July 2014 had 9,198 sales. So, having just 5,869 in July of 2017 was quite low; the recovery this year looks sharp, but remains well below the previous few years.

The average sale price was $782,129. That’s a bit below the June average ($807,871), but is a normal, seasonal dip. More interestingly, it was up 4.8% from the July 2017 average price ($745,971). There were 13,868 new listings, a dip of 1.8%, but the total number of available listings was up 5.2%, to 19,725. If we get a few thousand more listings in the coming months (i.e. the ‘fall market’), we should have enough listings to make for a more balanced market.

July condo sales in the 416 were up 5.8%; the average price was $582,547, up 9.2%. In fact, the average sale price for all types (detached, semi-detached, townhouses and condos) went up, year-over-year.

August continued with the usual seasonal slowness, but still showed signs of improvement over last year. There were 6,839 sales, an 8.5% increase over August 2017. August of 2017 was similar to last July – in a bit of post spike/correction shock. There were just 6,306 last August. Again, for reference, August 2016 had 9,813 sales; August 2015 had 7,998; and August 2014 had 7,568 sales. Last year, August was well below the previous few years, so an impressive-seeming increase this year must be seen in the right light.

The average sale price was up 4.7% to $765,270. Again, a bit below the previous month but typical for the time of year. (Also, the mix of types of home matters more when the volume is relatively low.) There were 12,166 new listings, a 6% increase, and the total number of available listings was up 8.8%, to 17,864.

Condo sales volume slipped 5.6% in the 416 last month, but the average sale price actually increase 8.3%, possibly reflecting some extra tightness in that segment. With some luck, September listings will ease that pressure – but, still, condos remain a good buy for downtowners and investors.

Looking ahead to the rest of September, it’s reasonable to expect more new listings and a decent pace of sales. The average sale price in September 2017 was $775,546, which represented a significant bump from $730,969 the month prior. Again, that’s typical of the seasonal nature of the real estate market – things pick up quickly in September. I think that this month will be our first really good measure of what the market has been doing since the price spike/correction of 2017. My bet is that we’ll see strong price appreciation.

By the way, the Bank of Canada left their prime rate unchanged this week, so we might actually have a month or two without any outside interference in the market. That would be nice, as it would allow things to unfold naturally. 😉

June 2018 Market Review

July 6th, 2018 Posted by Market Review No Comment yet

For most of 2018 so far, it has appeared that the Toronto real estate market has been ‘down’. All along, I’ve been saying that it only looks that way because of the crazy price spike that occurred in the first few months of 2017, and that once this year’s data started to compare to what happened after the spike was over, we would get a better sense of what’s actually happening. (I have also done some longer-term comparisons, and looked at the month-to-month data over the last half-year or so.) Well, it appears that we are getting there!

The June 2018 stats are out, and the average price has finally shown a year-over-year increase. At $807,871, it’s only about a 2% increase over last June’s $791,929, but it’s notable for actually being an increase. The sales volume was also up to 8,082, about 2.4% above the 7,893 reported last June. In fact, the only metric that was down last month was new listings; there were only 15,922 last month, down 18.6% from last June’s 19,561. By the end of the month there were 20,844 active listings on the TorontoMLS, up 5.9% from 19,680 last year. That’s a decent number that should offer reasonable selection for buyers.

Something else that caught my eye is that the average sale price for the last few months has been quite stable. In March it was $784,558, then in April it jumped to $804,584, and was $805,320 in May. The June number is almost the same (see above), making for three months of flat pricing. Naturally, it could have something to do with the product mix, and declining new listings could also play a factor. Still, it’s a bit unusual: imagine that – a stable real estate market in Toronto!

Condos showed a 6% decline in sales volume, but a 9.5% jump in average price. With more luxury condos being built in Toronto, it could just be that the size and value of the typical condo hitting the market is greater, but it could also reflect continuing tightening in that segment. Either way, I think we can safely say that the Toronto condo market is not ‘over built’ or in any kind of trouble.

The summer months are typically a bit slower than spring and fall, so we naturally see a slight dip in sales and prices in July and August – and recent heat wave will probably contribute to that. But, overall I believe that we are past the messiest numbers, and the data over the next few months will show strong increases over last year. Watch for it – and remember that you read it here first! 😉

 

May 2018 Market Review

June 15th, 2018 Posted by Blog, Market Review No Comment yet

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported 7,834 sales in May 2018, 22.2% fewer than May 2017. There were 19,022 new listings posted to the Board, 26.2% fewer than the same month last year. Despite fewer new listings, the total number of available listings increased by 13.2%, to 20,919. Last year there were 18,477 on the market in May, and in May 2016 it was just 12,931. As I’ve pointed out before, in the busy spring and fall markets we used to regularly have over 20,000 listings, but that number fell significantly in recent years. We are at what I’d consider to be a decent level of available homes for sale, and that should not be misinterpretted as anything close to over-supply. If anything, it is closer to balanced (rather than clearly favouring buyers or sellers).

On the price side, the average sale price was $805,320, down 6.6% from last May. By May 2017, the big run-up in prices had peaked, and was on its way back down. I’ve been saying that last year’s anomalous price spike was making it hard to figure out what’s happening this year, and that when we got to the middle of this year and started comparing to the post-spike months of 2017 we’d have a better picture, and I think we are getting there.

That price spike was fairly short-lived – it was a truly wild ride. In December, 2016 the average sale price was $730,472. By April, 2017, it had leapt up to $920,791, a roughly 26% increase – in just four months! Over the next few months it declined, hitting $732,292 in August, erasing the spike almost completely. Since then, the market has been more or less increasing (with a typical December lull), and is currently up about 10% since last August. That’s a solid rate of increase, and would indicate a fairly strong market.

Condo sales in the 416 were down 13.2%, but the average sale price was up by 6.5%, showing that the condo market is chugging along.

Over the next couple of months, the numbers will start to reflect the true state of the Toronto real estate market. Given that the May average price is already above the June 2017 average price (which was $793,915), I think we’ll see our first year-over-year increase when this month’s numbers are reported in a few weeks. Who wants to bet that the headlines are going to be all about Toronto’s “booming” real estate market! 😉

 

March 2018 Market Review

April 4th, 2018 Posted by Blog, Market Commentary No Comment yet

Well, the TREB stats are out for March, and so are the breathless headlines! I was going to comment on a few of them, but the thought gave me a headache. 😉

While sales volume fell significantly year-over-year (down about 40%), one has to remember that at this time last year the market was still in the throes of utter madness. Very low supply had fuelled aggressive bidding by buyers, which caused a feeding frenzy of sorts, and that rapid price spike that I have referenced before. Compared to that period, the current market is a picture of serenity! Prices pulled back last year in/around April-May-June. Basically, comparing March of 2018 to March of 2017 is a bit pointless, because last year was an anomaly. I think that we’ll get a better sense of the true state of things when we see the April and May reports.

Nonetheless, the fact is that the average sale price was lower in March than it was last March, about -14.3%. Sales volume was down across all housing types, but the average price for a condo in the 416 was actually up 7.1%, again indicating that buyers have adjusted to high house prices by looking at the condo option. The average price for a detached house is now about $1,293,903, down from $1,561,780 at the same time last year. Keep in mind, though, that the price spike last year was +32.8% over March, 2016! That was obviously unsustainable, and it’s a good thing for the over-all market that those conditions only lasted a few months. The average sale price for a detached home in 2016 was $1,174,358; this year’s average is up about 10.2% since then, which I think is quite reasonable.

Keeping with the theme of looking back at 2016 for some perspective, overall, the average sale price in March 2018 is up 14% over March 2016, which tells me that we are in good shape.

The number of new listings dropped from 16,978 to 14,866, a decline of 12.4%. That might be because sellers were afraid of diminished returns, or it could just be a coincidence.  Even so, the number of active listings basically doubled, from 7,865 to 15,971. Again, that’s a good thing. There were 12,132 listings in March of 2016, which was down from 15,295 in 2015, so we are basically back to 2015 levels. Enough supply means that buyers have a better chance to buy what they want/need in the area where they want to be, and that’s a sign of a healthy real estate market.

Now that March Break and Easter are behind us, and the market has had time to absorb the new federal mortgage ‘stress test’ rules and the provincial housing regulations, I’m hoping that we get going with the spring market! If you plan to buy or sell any time soon, feel free to get in touch.